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Newsletter - 6/4/2023

Happy Sunday! I hope you have had a great weekend and are ready for the first full week of Summer trading.  Maybe this week we get a direction that is not just up?

PREVIOUS WEEK MARKET:

While the market held its breath about the Debt Deal, which got done after all the drama, tech stocks continued to fly - until Wednesday.  After hitting highs, many of the tech leaders actually posted confirmed reversals.  Market internals continued to worsen with less and less participation by more stocks.  

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VIX was hammered for the week and I was forced to do some adjustments.  I still believe it is inevitable that the Fed will lose control of their shenanigans but for now, I bought more time.

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The market is trending BULLISH right now so shorts are selective only, and light on size.  There is no reason to to try and be brave - wait for confirmation!

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Let's take a look at some charts:

SPY opened the week at 420.02 and closed at 427.92. With the MSM reports, you would have thought we were up 10% this week. 

spy.png

ECONOMIC COMMENTARY:

The Debt Ceiling deal got done and in the process, Washington was able to remove all spending caps for the next two years.  Think of how stupid it is to give the clowns in DC the ability to spend whatever they want, without limit.  It is incredibly angering that America appears to not care at all about what we are allowing BOTH parties to do to our fiscal condition.  There will be a reckoning for this and we all will end up paying for it, as will our children.

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There is something this weekend, Sunday, that is occurring - OPEC is meeting.  However interestingly, OPEC banned western news agencies from attending.  Think about this - why would OPEC do this?  Is it because they want to discuss topics that the West would not want them to?  Or is it because OPEC does not want any of their members influenced by the reporters who also work for Western intelligence services?

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Whatever the reason, the result of the meeting will only be the first salvo in the burgeoning battle between OPEC and Washington.  Saudi Arabia needs $80 per barrel in order to fund their economy.  Washington wants oil down because, as I have discussed repeatedly, oil up means inflation up.  Inflation up means that no reelection for Biden and economic pain.  And that's if none of the other "dominos" fall.

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Leaks / trial balloons are already appearing:

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oil.png

CLOSED TRADES THIS WEEK:

Despite the continued manipulation Members were able to make some money this week.  While I normally do not short term trade, sometimes you have to take what the market give you. If you want to get great trade ideas like this, go here.

Symbol
Type
Entry Date
Close Date
Days Held
Entry Price
Close Price
Profit/Loss%
MEI 07212023 35Calls
E
AAPL 08182023 210Calls
Lottery
06/01/2023
06/05/2023
3
0.52
0.93
78
LULU 0616 425Calls
Lottery
06/01/2023
06/02/2023
1
0.4
0.6
50
SPY 09152023 460Calls
Core
05/23/2023
05/30/2023
7
1.17
1.54
31
QQQ 09152023 385Calls
Core
05/21/2023
05/25/2023
4
1.17
1.71
46
BBBYQ
Lottery
05/09/2023
05/25/2023
16
0.2059
0.3051
48.18
BBBYQ
Lottery
05/09/2023
05/26/2023
17
0.2059
0.314
52.5
BBBYQ
Lottery
05/09/2023
05/24/2023
15
0.2059
0.2642
28.31
SPY 081823 450Calls
Core
05/31/2001
06/02/2023
2
1.11
2.11
90

TRADE IDEAS:

I also had some new Trade Ideas this week.  It was a good mix of Core and Lottery with a couple paying off in days.  Shout out to Are for the LULU play!

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If you are not a Member and want to see these, become one here.

BLOG POSTS:

In case you missed them, I did a lot of commentary this week:

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The Blog post library is here.

UPCOMING WEEK:

There's already a lot of talk about liquidity coming out of the market.  Here's how that would work in theory: since the Fed needs to sell debt to fund the debt, money will leave stocks in order to purchase that debt.

I don't agree.  Why would anyone pull money from a market when they know its being lifted by the Fed?  Why would anyone pull money when stocks just keep going up?  

I just don't see this huge exit of liquidity (estimated at $700 billion).

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While not correlative, I also saw this cross the wires: REGIONAL BANK EXECS BUYING STOCK IN THEIR BANKS,

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Now why would they be doing that unless they had confidence that they would not lose money??

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I REMAIN BEGRUDGINGLY BULLISH SHORT TERM INTO NEXT WEEK.  I FEEL DIRTY BUYING THIS MARKET BUT THAT'S WHAT I HAVE FELT LIKE IN THE PAST ALSO WHEN THE MARKET HAS BEEN LIKE THIS.

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I will remain cautious and watch for oil, liquidity or any other of the catalysts that I have identified previously.  But standing on the sidelines just because you don't agree with the REASON for the market advance is foolish.  This market could go and test the all time highs and I promise you, many will get in at the top if that were to happen, and then get smashed on a reversal.  That is not us.

SPY: Nothing has changed since last week: next target is 431.68 UNLESS we get a confirmed reversal on the daily chart.

NOTHING says get short yet.

spy.png

Same as last week: QQQ is breaking out.  Do NOT be fooled if it retraces a bit - next target is 371.24.

I am not looking to get short yet. BUT:

qqq.png

I am not getting too complacent because the Put/Call ratio just hit new lows; this means that very few are positioned for a down move.

put call.png

WHAT I AM LOOKING AT:

Next week I already have a Core trade ready to go.  Weyerhaeuser.  I will watch to see how the market opens Monday etc. before I enter though.

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I continue to want to get short homebuilders, banks, NVDA.  But I won't do it until/unless there is a confirmed reversal on the daily charts with FOLLOW THROUGH.

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I also will continue to search for opportunistic trades and share them with Members.

CLOSING COMMENTS:

  • Hey, if there are phrases or words I use that don't make sense, put them up here in the comments.

  • If there are any stocks or investments you want me to look at, send the to me at info@MrNotAdvice.com.  I will answer them in next week's newsletter.

  • Don't forget the Discord live chat is always open and free: Discord - come and join us!

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Thanks and let's have a great week!

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theBoss

CHANGES COMING:​

In the next couple of weeks, I will be shutting off Free access to Discord and some of the website.  I have always been transparent about monetizing traffic and now is the time to start.

I am mulling over how I will do this BUT THOSE OF YOU THAT ARE DISCORD MEMBERS BEFORE THE CHANGE WILL NEVER PAY FOR DISCORD.  At lot of ideas and lessons are held in Discord so if you have not joined the server, I encourage you to do so quickly.  Also, invite your friends before it gets locked down.

Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice.  It is offerred for entertainment purposes only.  Always consult your advisors before investing any money.  Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided.  Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor.  Do your own research.

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