Newsletter - 7/9/2023
Happy 4th of July to all the red-blooded American members! And for everyone else, enjoy the Holiday!
I will be catching up on updating the site and trying to get some relaxation time in as I am bacheloring it this 4th.
I am excited that we are past the end of the quarter and the market can hopefully move more freely.
PREVIOUS WEEK MARKET:
Last week both the SPY and QQQ started off looking like they wanted to start making a meaningful move lower. If you recall, I mentioned that I would not short either unless / until the weekly charts confirmed a down move. As the market rallied through the week it illustrated perfectly the danger of getting short this market on a shorter timeframe setup.
Until a big negative catalyst occurs the market will continue to go up. I have discussed the reason why for this on multiple occasions: the Fed is supporting the markets. I see the next possible downside catalyst being when the Fed hikes rates. Even then it will depend upon how much they hike and how many more times they "say" they will hike. In the meantime, the trend is our friend so I will continue to watch for trade ideas that benefit from the markets levitation. Now, let's look at the charts.
THIS WEEK'S TRADES SUCKED???:
All of our earnings play this week failed. I group NKE in there even though it was a CORE trade idea. As I do with every trade, win or lose, I look at them afterwards and see if my analysis was wrong, if I missed something. And when I did this today, I found something I completely missed:
I missed that IF the market is now expecting higher interest rates and a possible further economic slowdown, then companies would start guiding LOWER. Totally missed it and I apologize for doing so.
PAYX's earnings were actually meh to good and if you were quick and depending on your entry, you could have gotten out breakeven to a small loss. NKE I am a little po'd about because they actually reassured investors in late Spring that they were not having inventory problems and now they are?? With NKE, I have some time and I do think the worst headline risk is now behind us.
CLOSED TRADES THIS WEEK:
We only had one trade closed this
week:
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PAYX: -61% (9 days)
MODEL 5K PORTFOLIO:
Since May 9, here are the numbers:
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Total Return: +95%
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Average Return: 62.57%
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Average Hold: 5.50 days
MODEL 5k and LOSSES:
The last 7 trades have been losers, of which 4 have been Lottery-Earnings, 1 has been CORE and 1 has been Lottery. The net effect of these losses brought the Model 5k Portfolio total return down from 126% to 95%.
It troubled me that there were a few comments in the chat lamenting about the losses as well as trying to figure out what went wrong. Let me speak to both.
First, I warned everyone that losses would occur and that this would not be a straight line up. That's impossible, even for me. I understand frustration when a trade does not go the way we want and even more so when there are a string of trades that do that. But I want to remind you that the same methodology that I used that produced LEN (+144% in 4days), CORN (+209% in 8 days), ORCL (+442% in 5 days) and a LOT of other winners, is the same methodology used on the recent string of losers. Now, I blame myself for missing the outlook downgrades but even still, the recent losers had good to great probabilities.
You cannot look at one or two or even ten trades - they are merely parts of the whole. Just like there were runs of winners (seven in a row to start the month of May) and I did not get overly excited, having seven losers in a row does not get me despondent and looking for a new job.
I want all of you to be very careful of what you post in Discord. There is absolutely nothing beneficial to bitching about losing and in fact, it is detrimental to staying unemotional about trading. The success we seek is to FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAN because by doing so we protect capital and have the opportunity to "stay in the game." Plus, those members that were complaining are doing a great disservice to the rest of the members by being Debbie Downers. Heck, some of the commentors didn't even do the trades!
I understand frustration and what not. But I expect us to operate at a higher level than the average retail moron. Losing is part of the process. It is a guarantee. If a string of losses causes you to become overly down, then keep it to yourself and talk to me privately. But don't affect others. And frankly, if you have been position sizing correctly, those losses should not have had a large impact on your overall portfolio.
You all know what I want to build: a community of successful traders - not a community of successful RETAIL traders. If you want to be successful, then do what successful people do.
As to the second point - I think its great to always look at what could have been done better. BUT - if you decide to hold a trade longer than my exit, do not post the results. Here's why: while YOU have the discipline and it is part of your plan, it is not part of the base methodology I am teaching. If you are seeing something that can improve what I do, message me and let's review it. But I am telling you this: holding beyond the original stop will eventually lead to losses and bad habits. Trust me. We MUST let our losers go and move on.
It would be unfair if I didn't mention that I also saw many members moving on and taking the losses as part of the process. Trollian, RegEx, 2Tix are just a couple that come to mind. I know there were others that I am missing so to all of you who are elevating your mental game: GREAT JOB. To those who were not: DO BETTER.
Finally, I know the website sucks. I am not a web designer so I thank you for working with me as I continually work to make it functional. If anyone has web design experience, contact me!
UPCOMING WEEK:
We have some fairly important numbers coming this week so be aware of possible market gyrations around them:
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Monday: Manufacturing PMI
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Monday: ISM Manufacturing
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Wednesday: ADP Employment
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Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
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Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims
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Thursday: Services PMI
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Thursday: ISM Services
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Friday: Employment & Unemployment
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Friday: Hourly Wages
TRADE IDEAS:
I have updated the Trade Ideas webpage so that you can now click the symbol and it will take you directly to the original trade thesis..
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SCHW - Core Idea: initially gapped up but I will enter this trade on Monday, depending on price action of course.
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BBIO - Lottery Play
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NDAQ - Core Idea
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CANE - Core Idea
If you are not a Member and want to see these, become one HERE.
TRADE UPDATEs:
I am trying something new this week and doing a video review of my trade ideas. As always, feedback is welcomed.
WHAT I AM LOOKING AT:
We have banks and tech earnings coming up in a couple of weeks. I will be looking for some earnings candidates, but I will be paying particular attention to the highest probability setups. This means they will have had to beat/miss and gap at least 5 out of the last 6 times they reported. 6 out of 6 times would be even better. If I come up with none, then so be it.
As some of you know, I have a ton of alerts set up on my system for price breaks. As they go off I evaluate their worthiness as trade ideas. I probably look at over 100 ideas per week and end up with 5-8 total. I will be interested to see how the market opens the third quarter - will it continue its move higher (I think it will) or will it finally succumb to exhaustion. I can tell you that the market internals have been improving, such as market breadth and put call ratio. This is encouraging for the shorter term for our long positions.
The FOMC minutes could be a nothingburger since the Fed as already said what they intend to do - they have all turned Hawkish all of a sudden. Of course I predicted that they would like almost two months ago, and received a bunch of messages via Reddit on how big of an ass I was. While that may be true, it didn't change that there was no doubt in my mind that the Fed was going to be forced to hike. Now the question is do they do just the .50bps I called for or even more??
I continue to be humbled by the amazing number of members that sign up for paid memberships and the result is I am working even harder to make sure you are learning, have great content and I am sharing great, not good, trade ideas.
VIPs - Don't forget to check out the new real time trade comments section of the site. I hope that it provides another level of service to you.
And also VIPs, please let me know your availability for weekly group meetings to review new trade ideas as well as do some learning.
Also, I am finalizing the rest of the Insider and VIP lessons and will have those up, hopefully by midweek.
CLOSING COMMENTS:
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If there are any stocks or investments you want me to look at, send the to me at info@MrNotAdvice.com. I will answer them in next week's newsletter.
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Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon. In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.
Thanks and let's keep keeping on!
theBoss
Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice. It is offerred for entertainment purposes only. Always consult your advisors before investing any money. Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided. Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor. Do your own research.