RANDOMNESS:

Lot's of chatter this week about the upcoming OPEX and how market makers are keeping the market up until then to exit long positions.  Perhaps.  Even if this is true, it's reflected in price and frankly, if this is true, they are failing.  There are actually data points that support this such as Morgan Stanley's note that "Dealer Positioning has turned negative for the first time this year" meaning that Wall Street traders have adjusted their Gamma exposure to a negative position - translation: they own puts more than they own calls.  Wall Street loves to make things complicated, largely to keep YOU in the dark.  

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So is this an important data point?  Sure.  Is it a trade signal?  No way.  I mean, how the heck would you trade it??  But puts?  We already did.

Here's my point - when you hear stuff like this don't ignore it, just realize that just becauseit gets a headline doesn't mean its useful.  THE SUM OF THE DATA is what matters. 

 

You know that I think the Fed is lying (shocking) and that inflation is actually higher than reported AND is moving back up.  Well, let's take look at this:

 

 

 

 

 

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See the uptick on the right starting to form?  Uh-huh.  It's important to understand the data behind the chart.  

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I do not pay attention to CPI because consumers are at the end of the inflationary dog tail.

I prefer PMI numbers: what producers are paying for materials and supplies.  They are much more forward on the inflationary dog.

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Ask yourself this: what happens WHEN rates continue to go up AND therefore the cost of the producers' debt goes up, and then the producers start laying off (already happening) and then consumers have less money to spend because they lost their job or they fear losing their job (spending contracts) and then producers are forced to cut back production and then they are forced to layoff more people - the circle of death.

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If you can honestly tell me there is an argument for the economy being in a growth phase then I would say you are not very smart or havent been outside lately.  The economy, at best, is stalling.  In fact, the economy, looking at credit, interest rates, hiring (negative hiring?) - all point to an economy slowing down. Do not believe the MSM - they lie and they are sharing what they are told to share.  Bottom line, the ingredients for a sustained bear market are in place.  It is not a matter of IF but when.

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I will make it simple.  Here's what's going to happen over the next 3-6 months:

• Interest rates will go up

• Unemployment will go up (recent gains were for part time jobs btw)

• Home prices will go down (might be 6-9 months)

• Oil will come down

• Market will go down

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While I am overly simplifying, you know that I have the data to support ALL of this.  I have discussed and shared it all in the Discord chat (another reason to join if you already haven't).

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NOW - this will not happen overnight but I am more confident today than I was 2 months ago, and I was pretty confident then.  

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Sometimes the best thing to do in the market is SOH (Sit on Hands) and that time is now.  Do not mistake trading activity for success: the more activity the more successful you trade.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.

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I wait for opportunities where I just cannot NOT get into a trade.  I have numerous trade candidates that I have been discussing with VIPs and Traders but with most of them, price action has kept us out AND HELPED US AVOID LOSSES.  

 

PREVIOUS CALLS:

In case you are doubting any of this remember:

• In the early summer I said the market would go higher when the "experts" said it was going lower.

• I said in May that interest rates were going to go up when the market said the Fed was done and would be cutting.

• I said oil was going to go up when the market was positioned for it to go down.

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It's not that I am overly smart or can tell the future; IT'S BECAUSE I PAY ATTENTION TO THE DATA and block out the noise.  Sometimes I am wrong.  So what?  Because most of the time, I am pretty spot on.  That alone is worth the time you spend with me.​